📊 BACKTEST V18 — 25/06/2026

📈 Vue globale

1222

Total trades

1217 (100%)

Trades complets

Combos actifs

+3.125R

Best Expectancy

📖 Définitions & Objectifs

Objectif du backtest

Identifier quelles configurations de signaux (combo = Ticker × UT × Direction × SignalType × Structure) produisent un edge statistique mesurable sur les futures crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL sur Bitget).

Expectancy

Mesure le gain moyen par trade si la stratégie est répétée indéfiniment.

Formule : Expectancy = WR × NR − (1 − WR) × 1R

Exemple : WR_3R = 40% → Exp = 0.40 × 3 − 0.60 × 1 = +0.60R par trade en moyenne.

Le Best_TP est le niveau de TP qui maximise l'expectancy pour chaque combo. Expectancy négative = la stratégie perd à long terme.

Niveaux de R

R = multiple du risque initial (distance EntryPrice → SL).
1R = récupère ce qu’on risque. 3R = gagne 3× ce qu’on risque. Etc.

Rôles MTF (Multi-TimeFrame)

Starter : signal de TF bas qui a reçu une confirmation sur un TF supérieur avant que son SL soit touché. ⚠ Biais de survie : le SL n’a pas été touché avant la confirmation par définition → WR gonflé mécaniquement.
Confirmer : signal de TF supérieur arrivé après un starter de TF inférieur. Utile pour mesurer la viabilité d’une entrée tardive sur TF supérieur.
Isolé : aucune interaction MTF → baseline du signal pris seul, sans confluence.

Filtres indicateurs

Pour chaque combo, la tranche d’indicateur (RSI, ADX, CHOP, MACD, EMA_Diff) qui produit le meilleur WR sur au moins 3 trades. Permet d’affiner les conditions d’entrée.

▼ 🏆 Combos (min 5 trades, triés espérance)

Combo

Best TP

Expectancy

Expectancy & Winrate par niveau

SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1

10R

+3.125R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.50	+0.56	+0.50	+1.00	+1.50	+1.25	+1.62	+2.00	+2.38	+2.75	+3.12
Winrate	75%	62%	50%	50%	50%	38%	38%	38%	38%	38%	38%

SOLUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+2.667R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.11	+0.11	+0.33	+0.78	+1.22	+1.00	+1.33	+1.67	+2.00	+2.33	+2.67
Winrate	56%	44%	44%	44%	44%	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%

ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1

+1.800R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.40	+0.75	+0.80	+1.00	+1.50	+1.40	+1.80	+1.40	+1.70	+1.00	+1.20
Winrate	70%	70%	60%	50%	50%	40%	40%	30%	30%	20%	20%

SOLUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1

10R

+1.750R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.33	-0.17	+-0.00	+0.00	+0.25	+0.50	+0.75	+1.00	+1.25	+1.50	+1.75
Winrate	33%	33%	33%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%

SOLUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1

+1.500R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.40	+0.50	+0.50	+1.00	+1.50	+0.20	+0.40	+0.60	+0.80	+1.00	+1.20
Winrate	70%	60%	50%	50%	50%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+1.461R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.03	+0.18	+0.42	+0.58	+0.91	+1.29	+1.40	+1.32	+1.25	+1.24	+1.46
Winrate	51%	47%	47%	40%	38%	38%	34%	29%	25%	22%	22%

SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1

+1.400R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.07	+0.08	+0.30	+0.53	+0.83	+1.10	+0.98	+1.27	+1.40	+1.00	+1.02
Winrate	47%	43%	43%	38%	37%	35%	28%	28%	27%	20%	18%

SOLUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1

+1.400R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.20	+0.50	+0.20	+0.60	+1.00	+1.40	+0.40	+0.60	+0.80	+1.00	-1.00
Winrate	60%	60%	40%	40%	40%	40%	20%	20%	20%	20%	0%

BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1

+1.291R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.09	+0.32	+0.47	+0.82	+1.00	+1.18	+1.29	+0.89	+0.64	+0.64	+0.60
Winrate	54%	53%	49%	46%	40%	36%	33%	24%	18%	16%	14%

SOLUSDT 15m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+1.200R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.20	-0.50	-0.40	-0.20	+0.00	+0.20	+0.40	+0.60	+0.80	+1.00	+1.20
Winrate	40%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

SOLUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1

+1.174R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.16	+0.34	+0.48	+0.80	+1.03	+1.17	+1.03	+1.09	+1.09	+1.17	+1.07
Winrate	58%	54%	49%	45%	41%	36%	29%	26%	23%	22%	19%

ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1

10R

+1.043R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.20	-0.04	+0.03	+0.31	+0.50	+0.80	+0.80	+0.83	+0.93	+0.86	+1.04
Winrate	40%	39%	34%	33%	30%	30%	26%	23%	21%	19%	19%

ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+1.012R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.02	+0.10	+0.21	+0.32	+0.40	+0.46	+0.54	+0.66	+0.76	+0.95	+1.01
Winrate	49%	44%	40%	33%	28%	24%	22%	21%	20%	20%	18%

BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1

+1.000R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.33	+0.46	+0.50	+1.00	+0.25	+-0.00	+0.17	+0.33	+0.50	+0.67	+0.83
Winrate	67%	58%	50%	50%	25%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%

ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1

+1.000R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.00	+0.25	+0.50	+1.00	+0.50	+0.20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	+0.00	+0.10
Winrate	50%	50%	50%	50%	30%	20%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%

ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1

10R

+0.970R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.16	+0.42	+0.52	+0.43	+0.42	+0.43	+0.67	+0.79	+0.75	+0.94	+0.97
Winrate	58%	57%	51%	36%	28%	24%	24%	22%	19%	19%	18%

ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1

+0.909R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.09	+0.25	+0.36	+0.27	+0.59	+0.91	+0.91	+0.46	+0.64	+0.36	+0.50
Winrate	54%	50%	46%	32%	32%	32%	27%	18%	18%	14%	14%

ETHUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1

+0.882R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.06	+0.03	+0.23	+0.41	+0.18	+0.41	+0.65	+0.88	+0.59	+0.18	+0.29
Winrate	53%	41%	41%	35%	24%	24%	24%	24%	18%	12%	12%

BTCUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1

1.5R

+0.875R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.75	+0.88	+0.12	+0.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00
Winrate	88%	75%	38%	25%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1

+0.839R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.10	+0.29	+0.55	+0.55	+0.77	+0.84	+0.69	+0.55	+0.60	+0.45	+0.42
Winrate	55%	52%	52%	39%	36%	31%	24%	19%	18%	14%	13%

BTCUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1

+0.818R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.36	+0.70	+0.77	+0.82	+0.82	+0.64	+0.27	-0.27	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00
Winrate	68%	68%	59%	46%	36%	27%	18%	9%	0%	0%	0%

ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1

10R

+0.754R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.10	+0.23	+0.26	+0.33	+0.23	+0.39	+0.62	+0.51	+0.70	+0.74	+0.75
Winrate	55%	49%	42%	33%	25%	23%	23%	19%	19%	17%	16%

SOLUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1

10R

+0.692R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.23	+0.35	+0.61	+0.23	+0.15	+0.39	+0.08	+0.23	+0.39	+0.54	+0.69
Winrate	62%	54%	54%	31%	23%	23%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%

SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1

+0.628R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.02	+0.19	+0.29	+0.49	+0.63	+0.54	+0.30	+0.40	+0.36	+0.40	+0.41
Winrate	49%	48%	43%	37%	33%	26%	19%	17%	15%	14%	13%

BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+0.571R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.10	+0.10	+0.21	+0.29	+0.43	+0.50	+0.50	+0.43	+0.50	+0.43	+0.57
Winrate	45%	44%	40%	32%	29%	25%	21%	18%	17%	14%	14%

BTCUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1

+0.500R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.00	+0.00	+0.20	+0.20	+0.50	+0.20	+0.40	-0.20	-0.10	+0.00	+0.10
Winrate	50%	40%	40%	30%	30%	20%	20%	10%	10%	10%	10%

ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1

+0.500R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.40	-0.25	-0.10	+0.00	+0.25	+0.20	+0.05	+0.20	+0.35	+0.50	+0.10
Winrate	30%	30%	30%	25%	25%	20%	15%	15%	15%	15%	10%

ETHUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1

+0.500R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.25	-0.06	+0.12	+0.00	+0.25	+0.50	-0.12	+0.00	+0.12	+0.25	+0.38
Winrate	38%	38%	38%	25%	25%	25%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%

BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1

+0.462R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	+0.05	+0.12	+0.20	+0.23	+0.30	+0.46	+0.38	+0.38
Winrate	46%	38%	32%	26%	22%	20%	18%	16%	16%	14%	12%

SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1

10R

+0.375R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.50	-0.38	-0.25	+0.00	-0.38	-0.25	-0.12	+0.00	+0.12	+0.25	+0.38
Winrate	25%	25%	25%	25%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%

ETHUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1

+0.273R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.46	-0.55	-0.46	-0.27	-0.09	+0.09	+0.27	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	+0.00
Winrate	27%	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%	9%	9%	9%	9%

BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1

10R

+0.100R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.40	-0.25	-0.40	-0.60	-0.50	-0.40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	+0.00	+0.10
Winrate	30%	30%	20%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%

BTCUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1

1.5R

+0.029R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.06	+0.03	-0.12	-0.29	-0.12	-0.29	-0.18	-0.53	-0.47	-0.41	-0.35
Winrate	47%	41%	29%	18%	18%	12%	12%	6%	6%	6%	6%

⚠ Combos sans espérance positive

Combo	N
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1	11
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1	24
BTCUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1	10
SOLUSDT 15m LONG Continuation +1	5
SOLUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1	6

▼ 🔀 Analyse MTF

Combo	Groupe	N	R moyen	Écart vs Isolés
SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	4	8.5	—
	Confirmers	3	0.5	—
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	4	7.8	—
	Confirmers	3	1.3	—
BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	4	6.8	—
	Confirmers	7	0.8	—
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	29	7.5	+6.6
	Isolés	47	1.0	—
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	19	7.3	+6.6
	Isolés	61	0.7	—
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	23	7.3	+6.5
	Isolés	61	0.8	—
SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	26	6.9	+6.5
	Isolés	34	0.4	—
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	17	7.6	+6.5
	Isolés	52	1.2	—
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	23	7.0	+6.0
	Isolés	44	1.0	—
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	5	6.0	+6.0
	Confirmers	4	0.5	+0.5
	Isolés	3	0.0	—
ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	3	6.0	—
	Confirmers	5	1.4	—
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	25	6.6	+6.0
	Isolés	30	0.6	—
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	33	6.2	+5.8
	Isolés	49	0.4	—
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	27	6.3	+5.8
	Isolés	43	0.6	—
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	4	6.8	+5.8
	Confirmers	7	0.6	-0.4
	Isolés	9	1.0	—
SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	22	6.9	+5.6
	Isolés	64	1.2	—
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	25	6.3	+5.6
	Isolés	37	0.8	—
BTCUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	3	6.0	+5.5
	Confirmers	6	1.0	+0.5
	Isolés	8	0.5	—
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	28	6.4	+4.8
	Isolés	41	1.5	—
SOLUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	4	5.5	+4.8
	Confirmers	6	1.8	+1.2
	Isolés	3	0.7	—
ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	3	7.3	+4.7
	Confirmers	4	2.9	+0.2
	Isolés	3	2.7	—
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	10	5.7	+4.7
	Confirmers	5	0.0	-1.0
	Isolés	7	1.0	—
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	8	5.0	+4.0
	Confirmers	6	0.3	-0.7
	Isolés	3	1.0	—
ETHUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	4	4.0	+4.0
	Confirmers	4	0.2	+0.2
	Isolés	3	0.0	—
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	6	4.4	+2.9
	Confirmers	5	3.1	+1.6
	Isolés	11	1.6	—
SOLUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	5	5.1	+2.8
	Isolés	4	2.2	—
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	4	3.0	+2.1
	Confirmers	12	0.6	-0.3
	Isolés	8	0.9	—

▼ 🔍 Meilleurs filtres indicateurs (N≥15)

Combo	Indicateur	Tranche	Expectancy globale	Expectancy filtrée	Gain Expectancy	N
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	+1.46R (10R) — WR: 22%	+3.53R (10R) — WR: 41%	+2.07R	34
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	ADX	>35	+1.05R (10R) — WR: 19%	+2.88R (10R) — WR: 35%	+1.84R	17
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	>35	+1.01R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.33R (9R) — WR: 33%	+1.32R	18
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	+0.84R (5R) — WR: 31%	+2.03R (6R) — WR: 43%	+1.20R	30
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	RSI	30-50	+1.29R (6R) — WR: 33%	+2.25R (6R) — WR: 46%	+0.96R	28
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1	CHOP	<38.2	+0.46R (8R) — WR: 16%	+1.40R (8R) — WR: 27%	+0.94R	15
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	+0.97R (10R) — WR: 18%	+1.83R (10R) — WR: 26%	+0.86R	35
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	MACD	négatif	+0.57R (10R) — WR: 14%	+1.38R (10R) — WR: 22%	+0.81R	37
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1	MACD	négatif	+0.91R (5R) — WR: 32%	+1.62R (6R) — WR: 38%	+0.72R	16
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1	RSI	30-50	+0.75R (10R) — WR: 16%	+1.43R (9R) — WR: 24%	+0.68R	37

▼ 🔬 Meilleures combinaisons de 2 indicateurs (N≥15)

Combo	Indicateur 1	Tranche 1	Indicateur 2	Tranche 2	Expectancy globale	Expectancy combinée	Gain Expectancy	N
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	RSI	50-70	ADX	20-35	+1.46R (10R) — WR: 22%	+4.21R (10R) — WR: 47%	+2.75R	19
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	CHOP	38.2-61.8	+1.46R (10R) — WR: 22%	+4.21R (10R) — WR: 47%	+2.75R	19
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	EMA_Diff	positif	+1.46R (10R) — WR: 22%	+3.71R (10R) — WR: 43%	+2.25R	21
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	Hist_MACD	négatif	+0.84R (5R) — WR: 31%	+2.67R (10R) — WR: 33%	+1.83R	15
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	Hist_MACD	négatif	+0.97R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.67R (10R) — WR: 33%	+1.70R	18
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	Hist_MACD	positif	EMA_Diff	positif	+0.84R (5R) — WR: 31%	+2.50R (6R) — WR: 50%	+1.66R	16
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	CHOP	<38.2	EMA_Diff	positif	+1.01R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.53R (9R) — WR: 35%	+1.52R	17
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	RSI	30-50	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.29R (6R) — WR: 33%	+2.79R (6R) — WR: 54%	+1.50R	24
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	CHOP	38.2-61.8	EMA_Diff	positif	+0.84R (5R) — WR: 31%	+2.33R (6R) — WR: 48%	+1.49R	21
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	Hist_MACD	négatif	+0.57R (10R) — WR: 14%	+1.93R (10R) — WR: 27%	+1.36R	15
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	CHOP	<38.2	Hist_MACD	positif	+1.01R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.33R (9R) — WR: 33%	+1.32R	18
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	CHOP	38.2-61.8	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.04R (10R) — WR: 19%	+2.35R (10R) — WR: 30%	+1.30R	23
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	CHOP	38.2-61.8	Hist_MACD	négatif	+0.57R (10R) — WR: 14%	+1.85R (10R) — WR: 26%	+1.28R	27
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	RSI	30-50	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.04R (10R) — WR: 19%	+2.30R (10R) — WR: 30%	+1.26R	30
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	Hist_MACD	positif	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.29R (6R) — WR: 33%	+2.50R (6R) — WR: 50%	+1.21R	16