📊 BACKTEST V18 — 25/06/2026

📈 Vue globale

1287

Total trades

1276 (99%)

Trades complets

Combos actifs

+3.125R

Best Expectancy

📖 Définitions & Objectifs

Objectif du backtest

Identifier quelles configurations de signaux (combo = Ticker × UT × Direction × SignalType × Structure) produisent un edge statistique mesurable sur les futures crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL sur Bitget).

Expectancy

Mesure le gain moyen par trade si la stratégie est répétée indéfiniment.

Formule : Expectancy = WR × NR − (1 − WR) × 1R

Exemple : WR_3R = 40% → Exp = 0.40 × 3 − 0.60 × 1 = +0.60R par trade en moyenne.

Le Best_TP est le niveau de TP qui maximise l'expectancy pour chaque combo. Expectancy négative = la stratégie perd à long terme.

Niveaux de R

R = multiple du risque initial (distance EntryPrice → SL).
1R = récupère ce qu’on risque. 3R = gagne 3× ce qu’on risque. Etc.

Rôles MTF (Multi-TimeFrame)

Starter : signal de TF bas qui a reçu une confirmation sur un TF supérieur avant que son SL soit touché. ⚠ Biais de survie : le SL n’a pas été touché avant la confirmation par définition → WR gonflé mécaniquement.
Confirmer : signal de TF supérieur arrivé après un starter de TF inférieur. Utile pour mesurer la viabilité d’une entrée tardive sur TF supérieur.
Isolé : aucune interaction MTF → baseline du signal pris seul, sans confluence.

Filtres indicateurs

Pour chaque combo, la tranche d’indicateur (RSI, ADX, CHOP, MACD, EMA_Diff) qui produit le meilleur WR sur au moins 3 trades. Permet d’affiner les conditions d’entrée.

▼ 🏆 Combos (min 5 trades, triés espérance)

Combo

Best TP

Expectancy

Expectancy & Winrate par niveau

SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1

10R

+3.125R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.50	+0.56	+0.50	+1.00	+1.50	+1.25	+1.62	+2.00	+2.38	+2.75	+3.12
Winrate	75%	62%	50%	50%	50%	38%	38%	38%	38%	38%	38%

SOLUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+2.667R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.11	+0.11	+0.33	+0.78	+1.22	+1.00	+1.33	+1.67	+2.00	+2.33	+2.67
Winrate	56%	44%	44%	44%	44%	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%

ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1

+1.800R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.40	+0.75	+0.80	+1.00	+1.50	+1.40	+1.80	+1.40	+1.70	+1.00	+1.20
Winrate	70%	70%	60%	50%	50%	40%	40%	30%	30%	20%	20%

SOLUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1

10R

+1.750R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.33	-0.17	+-0.00	+0.00	+0.25	+0.50	+0.75	+1.00	+1.25	+1.50	+1.75
Winrate	33%	33%	33%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%

SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+1.651R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.04	+0.20	+0.45	+0.64	+0.99	+1.39	+1.53	+1.51	+1.49	+1.41	+1.65
Winrate	52%	48%	48%	41%	40%	40%	36%	31%	28%	24%	24%

SOLUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1

+1.500R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.40	+0.50	+0.50	+1.00	+1.50	+0.20	+0.40	+0.60	+0.80	+1.00	+1.20
Winrate	70%	60%	50%	50%	50%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+1.402R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.01	+0.15	+0.28	+0.42	+0.55	+0.66	+0.77	+0.93	+1.07	+1.30	+1.40
Winrate	51%	46%	42%	36%	31%	28%	25%	24%	23%	23%	22%

SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1

+1.354R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.08	+0.08	+0.29	+0.54	+0.85	+1.12	+0.94	+1.22	+1.35	+1.00	+1.03
Winrate	46%	43%	43%	38%	37%	35%	28%	28%	26%	20%	18%

SOLUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1

+1.254R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.18	+0.34	+0.48	+0.80	+1.04	+1.20	+1.07	+1.14	+1.16	+1.25	+1.17
Winrate	59%	54%	49%	45%	41%	37%	30%	27%	24%	22%	20%

SOLUSDT 15m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+1.200R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.20	-0.50	-0.40	-0.20	+0.00	+0.20	+0.40	+0.60	+0.80	+1.00	+1.20
Winrate	40%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1

+1.180R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.08	+0.27	+0.43	+0.77	+0.97	+1.16	+1.18	+0.84	+0.62	+0.64	+0.62
Winrate	54%	51%	48%	44%	39%	36%	31%	23%	18%	16%	15%

BTCUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1

+1.083R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.17	+0.25	+0.50	+0.67	+1.08	+0.50	+0.75	-0.33	-0.25	-0.17	-0.08
Winrate	58%	50%	50%	42%	42%	25%	25%	8%	8%	8%	8%

BTCUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1

+1.045R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.36	+0.70	+0.77	+0.82	+1.04	+0.91	+0.27	-0.27	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00
Winrate	68%	68%	59%	46%	41%	32%	18%	9%	0%	0%	0%

ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1

10R

+1.014R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.21	-0.05	+0.01	+0.30	+0.48	+0.78	+0.78	+0.80	+0.90	+0.83	+1.01
Winrate	39%	38%	34%	32%	30%	30%	25%	22%	21%	18%	18%

SOLUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1

+1.000R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.00	+0.25	+-0.00	+0.33	+0.67	+1.00	+0.17	+0.33	+0.50	+0.67	-1.00
Winrate	50%	50%	33%	33%	33%	33%	17%	17%	17%	17%	0%

ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1

+1.000R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.00	+0.25	+0.50	+1.00	+0.50	+0.20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	+0.00	+0.10
Winrate	50%	50%	50%	50%	30%	20%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%

BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1

+1.000R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.33	+0.46	+0.50	+1.00	+0.25	+-0.00	+0.17	+0.33	+0.50	+0.67	+0.83
Winrate	67%	58%	50%	50%	25%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%

ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1

10R

+0.913R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.16	+0.41	+0.52	+0.45	+0.45	+0.39	+0.62	+0.74	+0.70	+0.88	+0.91
Winrate	58%	56%	51%	36%	29%	23%	23%	22%	19%	19%	17%

ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1

+0.909R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.09	+0.25	+0.36	+0.27	+0.59	+0.91	+0.91	+0.46	+0.64	+0.36	+0.50
Winrate	54%	50%	46%	32%	32%	32%	27%	18%	18%	14%	14%

BTCUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1

1.5R

+0.875R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.75	+0.88	+0.12	+0.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00
Winrate	88%	75%	38%	25%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1

+0.781R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.09	+0.29	+0.50	+0.50	+0.72	+0.78	+0.64	+0.50	+0.55	+0.56	+0.55
Winrate	55%	52%	50%	38%	34%	30%	23%	19%	17%	16%	14%

ETHUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1

+0.778R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.00	-0.03	+0.17	+0.33	+0.11	+0.33	+0.56	+0.78	+0.50	+0.11	+0.22
Winrate	50%	39%	39%	33%	22%	22%	22%	22%	17%	11%	11%

BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1

10R

+0.711R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.09	+0.11	+0.23	+0.33	+0.50	+0.60	+0.63	+0.60	+0.70	+0.56	+0.71
Winrate	46%	44%	41%	33%	30%	27%	23%	20%	19%	16%	16%

SOLUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1

10R

+0.692R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.23	+0.35	+0.61	+0.23	+0.15	+0.39	+0.08	+0.23	+0.39	+0.54	+0.69
Winrate	62%	54%	54%	31%	23%	23%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%

ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1

10R

+0.658R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	+0.07	+0.20	+0.19	+0.26	+0.16	+0.32	+0.53	+0.42	+0.60	+0.64	+0.66
Winrate	53%	48%	40%	32%	23%	22%	22%	18%	18%	16%	15%

SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1

+0.576R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.02	+0.20	+0.30	+0.48	+0.58	+0.50	+0.29	+0.30	+0.27	+0.30	+0.32
Winrate	49%	48%	44%	37%	32%	25%	18%	16%	14%	13%	12%

ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1

+0.429R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.43	-0.29	-0.14	-0.05	+0.19	+0.14	+-0.00	+0.14	+0.29	+0.43	+0.05
Winrate	29%	29%	29%	24%	24%	19%	14%	14%	14%	14%	10%

BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1

+0.410R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.08	-0.10	-0.06	+0.01	+0.08	+0.16	+0.18	+0.25	+0.41	+0.33	+0.33
Winrate	46%	36%	31%	25%	22%	19%	17%	16%	16%	13%	12%

ETHUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1

+0.333R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.11	+0.11	+0.33	-0.11	+0.11	+0.33	-0.22	-0.11	+0.00	+0.11	+0.22
Winrate	44%	44%	44%	22%	22%	22%	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%

ETHUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1

+0.273R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.46	-0.55	-0.46	-0.27	-0.09	+0.09	+0.27	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	+0.00
Winrate	27%	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%	9%	9%	9%	9%

SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1

10R

+0.222R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.56	-0.44	-0.33	-0.11	-0.44	-0.33	-0.22	-0.11	+0.00	+0.11	+0.22
Winrate	22%	22%	22%	22%	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%

BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1

+0.091R

	1R	1.5R	2R	3R	4R	5R	6R	7R	8R	9R	10R
Expectancy	-0.27	-0.09	-0.18	-0.27	-0.09	+0.09	-0.36	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	+0.00
Winrate	36%	36%	27%	18%	18%	18%	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%

⚠ Combos sans espérance positive

Combo	N
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1	11
BTCUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1	18
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1	24
SOLUSDT 15m LONG Continuation +1	5
BTCUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1	11
SOLUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1	6

▼ 🔀 Analyse MTF

Combo	Groupe	N	R moyen	Écart vs Isolés
SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	4	8.5	—
	Confirmers	3	0.5	—
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	4	7.8	—
	Confirmers	3	1.3	—
BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	4	6.8	—
	Confirmers	7	0.8	—
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	26	7.5	+6.8
	Isolés	64	0.8	—
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	19	7.3	+6.6
	Isolés	64	0.7	—
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	17	7.6	+6.5
	Isolés	56	1.1	—
SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	26	6.9	+6.1
	Isolés	39	0.7	—
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	29	6.4	+6.0
	Isolés	32	0.4	—
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	29	7.5	+6.0
	Isolés	54	1.5	—
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	5	6.0	+6.0
	Confirmers	4	0.5	+0.5
	Isolés	3	0.0	—
ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	3	6.0	—
	Confirmers	5	1.4	—
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	24	6.8	+5.9
	Isolés	45	0.9	—
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	26	6.5	+5.9
	Isolés	38	0.6	—
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	27	6.3	+5.8
	Isolés	44	0.5	—
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	4	6.8	+5.8
	Confirmers	8	0.5	-0.5
	Isolés	9	1.0	—
SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	22	6.9	+5.6
	Isolés	70	1.3	—
BTCUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
	Starters	3	6.0	+5.5
	Confirmers	7	0.9	+0.4
	Isolés	8	0.5	—
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	33	6.2	+5.1
	Isolés	54	1.1	—
SOLUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	4	5.5	+4.8
	Confirmers	6	1.8	+1.2
	Isolés	3	0.7	—
ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	3	7.3	+4.7
	Confirmers	4	2.9	+0.2
	Isolés	3	2.7	—
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	28	6.4	+4.7
	Isolés	43	1.7	—
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
	Starters	10	5.7	+4.7
	Confirmers	5	0.0	-1.0
	Isolés	7	1.0	—
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
	Starters	8	5.0	+4.0
	Confirmers	7	0.3	-0.7
	Isolés	3	1.0	—
ETHUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	4	4.0	+4.0
	Confirmers	4	0.2	+0.2
	Isolés	3	0.0	—
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	7	4.5	+3.1
	Confirmers	5	3.1	+1.7
	Isolés	10	1.4	—
SOLUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	5	5.1	+2.8
	Isolés	4	2.2	—
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
	Starters	4	3.0	+1.9
	Confirmers	12	0.6	-0.5
	Isolés	8	1.1	—

▼ 🔍 Meilleurs filtres indicateurs (N≥15)

Combo	Indicateur	Tranche	Expectancy globale	Expectancy filtrée	Gain Expectancy	N
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	+1.65R (10R) — WR: 24%	+3.76R (10R) — WR: 43%	+2.11R	37
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	>35	+0.72R (10R) — WR: 16%	+2.60R (8R) — WR: 40%	+1.88R	15
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	ADX	>35	+1.01R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.88R (10R) — WR: 35%	+1.87R	17
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	+0.78R (5R) — WR: 30%	+1.84R (6R) — WR: 41%	+1.06R	32
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1	CHOP	<38.2	+0.41R (8R) — WR: 16%	+1.40R (8R) — WR: 27%	+0.99R	15
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	>35	+1.40R (10R) — WR: 22%	+2.33R (9R) — WR: 33%	+0.94R	18
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	RSI	30-50	+1.18R (6R) — WR: 31%	+2.06R (6R) — WR: 44%	+0.89R	32
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1	RSI	30-50	+0.66R (10R) — WR: 15%	+1.43R (9R) — WR: 24%	+0.77R	37
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	+0.91R (10R) — WR: 17%	+1.68R (10R) — WR: 24%	+0.76R	37
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1	MACD	négatif	+0.91R (5R) — WR: 32%	+1.62R (6R) — WR: 38%	+0.72R	16

▼ 🔬 Meilleures combinaisons de 2 indicateurs (N≥15)

Combo	Indicateur 1	Tranche 1	Indicateur 2	Tranche 2	Expectancy globale	Expectancy combinée	Gain Expectancy	N
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	RSI	50-70	ADX	20-35	+1.65R (10R) — WR: 24%	+4.50R (10R) — WR: 50%	+2.85R	20
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	CHOP	38.2-61.8	+1.65R (10R) — WR: 24%	+4.50R (10R) — WR: 50%	+2.85R	20
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	ADX	20-35	Hist_MACD	négatif	+1.65R (10R) — WR: 24%	+4.18R (10R) — WR: 47%	+2.53R	17
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	Hist_MACD	négatif	+0.78R (5R) — WR: 30%	+2.67R (10R) — WR: 33%	+1.89R	15
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	RSI	50-70	Hist_MACD	négatif	+0.91R (10R) — WR: 17%	+2.30R (10R) — WR: 30%	+1.39R	20
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	CHOP	38.2-61.8	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.01R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.35R (10R) — WR: 30%	+1.33R	23
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	Hist_MACD	positif	EMA_Diff	positif	+0.78R (5R) — WR: 30%	+2.11R (6R) — WR: 44%	+1.33R	18
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	RSI	30-50	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.18R (6R) — WR: 31%	+2.50R (6R) — WR: 50%	+1.32R	28
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	Hist_MACD	positif	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.18R (6R) — WR: 31%	+2.50R (6R) — WR: 50%	+1.32R	16
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	RSI	30-50	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.01R (10R) — WR: 18%	+2.30R (10R) — WR: 30%	+1.29R	30
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	RSI	30-50	Hist_MACD	négatif	+1.40R (10R) — WR: 22%	+2.67R (10R) — WR: 33%	+1.26R	21
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	CHOP	38.2-61.8	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.40R (10R) — WR: 22%	+2.67R (10R) — WR: 33%	+1.26R	24
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1	Hist_MACD	négatif	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.40R (10R) — WR: 22%	+2.67R (10R) — WR: 33%	+1.26R	24
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1	CHOP	38.2-61.8	EMA_Diff	positif	+0.78R (5R) — WR: 30%	+2.04R (6R) — WR: 43%	+1.26R	23
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1	Hist_MACD	négatif	EMA_Diff	négatif	+1.18R (6R) — WR: 31%	+2.44R (10R) — WR: 31%	+1.26R	16