Identifier quelles configurations de signaux (combo = Ticker × UT × Direction × SignalType × Structure) produisent un edge statistique mesurable sur les futures crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL sur Bitget).
Expectancy
Mesure le gain moyen par trade si la stratégie est répétée indéfiniment.
Formule : Expectancy = WR × NR − (1 − WR) × 1R
Exemple : WR_3R = 40% → Exp = 0.40 × 3 − 0.60 × 1 = +0.60R par trade en moyenne.
Le Best_TP est le niveau de TP qui maximise l'expectancy pour chaque combo. Expectancy négative = la stratégie perd à long terme.
Niveaux de R
R = multiple du risque initial (distance EntryPrice → SL). 1R = récupère ce qu’on risque. 3R = gagne 3× ce qu’on risque. Etc.
Rôles MTF (Multi-TimeFrame)
Starter : signal de TF bas qui a reçu une confirmation sur un TF supérieur avant que son SL soit touché. ⚠ Biais de survie : le SL n’a pas été touché avant la confirmation par définition → WR gonflé mécaniquement.
Confirmer : signal de TF supérieur arrivé après un starter de TF inférieur. Utile pour mesurer la viabilité d’une entrée tardive sur TF supérieur.
Isolé : aucune interaction MTF → baseline du signal pris seul, sans confluence.
Filtres indicateurs
Pour chaque combo, la tranche d’indicateur (RSI, ADX, CHOP, MACD, EMA_Diff) qui produit le meilleur WR sur au moins 15 trades. Permet d’affiner les conditions d’entrée.
Genou de la courbe d’Expectancy (R_genou)
Le genou est le plus petit niveau de R dont l’Expectancy atteint 90 % du maximum de la ligne : viser ce R capture l’essentiel de l’espérance avec un TP plus proche, donc plus souvent rempli. Pas de genou si le max est ≤ 0 (combo perdant).
genou (R à viser) maximum de la courbe— — seuil 90 % du max (pointillé des mini-courbes)
Mêmes couleurs que l’onglet Selection_Bot du Sheet (colonne R_genou orange, colonne Best_Esp jaune, cellules marquées dans les lignes). Si genou = max, seul le point orange est affiché.
Légende des couleurs
Les mini-tableaux par niveau utilisent deux échelles distinctes.
Ligne Expectancy (en R) :
> 1.0R (excellent) 0.5 à 1.0R (bon) 0 à 0.5R (positif faible) < 0R (perdant) vide
Ligne Winrate (en %) :
≥ 60% 45 à 60% 30 à 45% < 30% vide
Bordure verte = Best_TP, le niveau de R qui maximise l’expectancy sur ce sous-ensemble.
⚠ Un Winrate rouge peut coexister avec une Expectancy verte : à R élevé, un WR faible suffit à rendre l’espérance positive. C’est la ligne Expectancy qui juge la rentabilité d’un niveau de TP, pas le Winrate seul.
▼ 🏆 Combos (min 5 trades, triés espérance)
Combo
N
Best TP
Expectancy
Expectancy & Winrate par niveau
Courbe Esp
BTCUSDT 60m LONG Reversal +1
7
10R
+2.143R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.14
+0.07
+0.29
+0.71
+0.43
+0.71
+1.00
+1.29
+1.57
+1.86
+2.14
Winrate
43%
43%
43%
43%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
ETHUSDT 30m LONG Reversal +1
16
10R
+1.750R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.12
+0.25
+0.50
+0.75
+1.19
+0.88
+0.75
+1.00
+1.25
+1.50
+1.75
Winrate
56%
50%
50%
44%
44%
31%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
ETHUSDT 60m LONG Reversal +1
8
10R
+1.750R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.00
-0.38
-0.25
+0.00
+0.25
+0.50
+0.75
+1.00
+1.25
+1.50
+1.75
Winrate
50%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
BTCUSDT 60m LONG Continuation +1
9
10R
+1.444R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.11
+0.11
-0.33
-0.11
+0.11
+0.33
+0.56
+0.78
+1.00
+1.22
+1.44
Winrate
44%
44%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
SOLUSDT 60m LONG Reversal +1
5
10R
+1.200R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.20
-0.50
-0.40
-0.20
+0.00
+0.20
+0.40
+0.60
+0.80
+1.00
+1.20
Winrate
40%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
1010
10R
+1.124R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.02
+0.20
+0.34
+0.49
+0.64
+0.73
+0.87
+1.01
+1.06
+1.06
+1.12
Winrate
51%
48%
45%
37%
33%
29%
27%
25%
23%
21%
19%
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
900
10R
+1.114R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.10
+0.27
+0.41
+0.64
+0.81
+0.90
+1.01
+1.01
+1.11
+1.11
+1.11
Winrate
55%
51%
47%
41%
36%
32%
29%
25%
23%
21%
19%
ETHUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
103
6R
+1.107R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.24
+0.36
+0.48
+0.59
+0.75
+0.92
+1.11
+1.02
+0.92
+1.04
+0.92
Winrate
62%
54%
50%
40%
35%
32%
30%
25%
21%
20%
18%
BTCUSDT 30m LONG Reversal +1
16
10R
+1.062R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.25
+0.09
+0.12
+0.25
+0.25
+0.50
+0.75
+0.50
+0.69
+0.88
+1.06
Winrate
62%
44%
38%
31%
25%
25%
25%
19%
19%
19%
19%
BTCUSDT 15m LONG Continuation +1
49
8R
+1.020R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.14
+0.28
+0.29
+0.47
+0.43
+0.47
+0.57
+0.80
+1.02
+0.84
+0.80
Winrate
57%
51%
43%
37%
29%
24%
22%
22%
22%
18%
16%
SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
712
10R
+0.993R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.04
+0.22
+0.36
+0.57
+0.68
+0.76
+0.76
+0.88
+0.82
+0.90
+0.99
Winrate
52%
49%
46%
39%
34%
29%
25%
24%
20%
19%
18%
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
777
9R
+0.956R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.04
+0.21
+0.34
+0.54
+0.67
+0.78
+0.82
+0.86
+0.92
+0.96
+0.91
Winrate
52%
48%
45%
38%
33%
30%
26%
23%
21%
20%
17%
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
718
8R
+0.955R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.05
+0.23
+0.34
+0.54
+0.62
+0.70
+0.76
+0.85
+0.95
+0.89
+0.92
Winrate
52%
49%
45%
38%
32%
28%
25%
23%
22%
19%
17%
ETHUSDT 15m LONG Continuation +1
47
10R
+0.872R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.11
+0.06
+0.09
+0.28
+0.17
+0.15
+0.34
+0.53
+0.72
+0.70
+0.87
Winrate
55%
43%
36%
32%
23%
19%
19%
19%
19%
17%
17%
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
642
10R
+0.833R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.02
+0.09
+0.21
+0.33
+0.42
+0.53
+0.66
+0.77
+0.78
+0.82
+0.83
Winrate
49%
44%
40%
33%
28%
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
17%
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
255
7R
+0.820R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.07
+0.23
+0.29
+0.46
+0.53
+0.60
+0.65
+0.82
+0.80
+0.77
+0.68
Winrate
54%
49%
43%
36%
31%
27%
24%
23%
20%
18%
15%
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
573
10R
+0.805R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.02
+0.13
+0.23
+0.35
+0.41
+0.54
+0.56
+0.59
+0.70
+0.73
+0.81
Winrate
49%
45%
41%
34%
28%
26%
22%
20%
19%
17%
16%
ETHUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
464
7R
+0.793R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.03
+0.14
+0.25
+0.34
+0.53
+0.59
+0.69
+0.79
+0.69
+0.70
+0.64
Winrate
49%
46%
42%
33%
31%
26%
24%
22%
19%
17%
15%
SOLUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
496
8R
+0.760R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.05
+0.12
+0.25
+0.46
+0.56
+0.62
+0.71
+0.71
+0.76
+0.69
+0.71
Winrate
47%
45%
42%
36%
31%
27%
24%
21%
20%
17%
16%
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
510
9R
+0.725R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.00
+0.14
+0.27
+0.41
+0.47
+0.52
+0.61
+0.66
+0.71
+0.72
+0.62
Winrate
50%
46%
42%
35%
29%
25%
23%
21%
19%
17%
15%
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
297
10R
+0.704R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.04
+0.17
+0.24
+0.41
+0.48
+0.58
+0.65
+0.70
+0.67
+0.68
+0.70
Winrate
52%
47%
41%
35%
30%
26%
24%
21%
18%
17%
16%
ETHUSDT 15m LONG Reversal +1
40
3R
+0.700R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.45
+0.56
+0.57
+0.70
+0.50
+0.50
+0.23
+0.40
+0.35
+0.50
+0.38
Winrate
72%
62%
52%
42%
30%
25%
18%
18%
15%
15%
12%
SOLUSDT 30m SHORT Continuation -1
13
1R
+0.692R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.69
+0.35
-0.08
-0.39
-0.61
-0.54
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Winrate
85%
54%
31%
15%
8%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
ETHUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1
139
9R
+0.655R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.17
-0.05
+0.04
+0.12
+0.19
+0.29
+0.41
+0.50
+0.55
+0.66
+0.50
Winrate
42%
38%
34%
28%
24%
22%
20%
19%
17%
16%
14%
SOLUSDT 30m LONG Continuation +1
20
2R
+0.650R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.20
+0.50
+0.65
+0.00
+0.00
-0.10
+0.05
+0.20
+0.35
+0.50
+0.65
Winrate
60%
60%
55%
25%
20%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
ETHUSDT 60m SHORT Continuation -1
13
6R
+0.615R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.23
-0.23
-0.08
+0.23
+0.15
+0.39
+0.61
+0.23
+0.39
+0.54
-0.15
Winrate
38%
31%
31%
31%
23%
23%
23%
15%
15%
15%
8%
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
506
8R
+0.583R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.07
+0.10
+0.20
+0.32
+0.47
+0.51
+0.47
+0.49
+0.58
+0.56
+0.54
Winrate
47%
44%
40%
33%
29%
25%
21%
19%
18%
16%
14%
BTCUSDT 15m SHORT Reversal -1
55
5R
+0.527R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.09
+0.14
+0.14
+0.24
+0.36
+0.53
+0.14
+0.02
-0.34
-0.27
-0.20
Winrate
54%
46%
38%
31%
27%
26%
16%
13%
7%
7%
7%
BTCUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
107
6R
+0.505R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.01
+0.14
+0.07
+0.27
+0.35
+0.29
+0.51
+0.42
+0.35
+0.40
+0.44
Winrate
50%
46%
36%
32%
27%
22%
22%
18%
15%
14%
13%
ETHUSDT 30m LONG Continuation +1
18
8R
+0.500R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.11
+0.11
+-0.00
-0.11
+0.11
+0.33
+0.17
+0.33
+0.50
+0.11
+0.22
Winrate
56%
44%
33%
22%
22%
22%
17%
17%
17%
11%
11%
SOLUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
114
9R
+0.491R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.05
+0.10
+0.16
+0.16
-0.04
+0.16
+0.35
+0.40
+0.34
+0.49
+0.35
Winrate
47%
44%
39%
29%
19%
19%
19%
18%
15%
15%
12%
SOLUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
142
9R
+0.479R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.03
+0.16
+0.27
+0.32
+0.34
+0.44
+0.38
+0.35
+0.39
+0.48
+0.47
Winrate
49%
46%
42%
33%
27%
24%
20%
17%
16%
15%
13%
SOLUSDT 15m LONG Continuation +1
50
5R
+0.440R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.16
-0.10
+0.02
+0.20
+0.30
+0.44
+0.26
+0.28
+0.08
+0.20
+0.32
Winrate
42%
36%
34%
30%
26%
24%
18%
16%
12%
12%
12%
ETHUSDT 60m SHORT Reversal -1
7
1.5R
+0.429R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.14
+0.43
-0.14
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Winrate
57%
57%
29%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
SOLUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1
149
9R
+0.409R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.07
+0.04
+0.05
+0.21
+0.28
+0.21
+0.17
+0.18
+0.27
+0.41
+0.40
Winrate
46%
42%
35%
30%
26%
20%
17%
15%
14%
14%
13%
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
664
10R
+0.408R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.13
+0.02
+0.09
+0.21
+0.26
+0.32
+0.30
+0.34
+0.37
+0.37
+0.41
Winrate
44%
41%
36%
30%
25%
22%
18%
17%
15%
14%
13%
ETHUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
226
10R
+0.363R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.12
-0.05
+0.06
+0.20
+0.08
+0.22
+0.30
+0.31
+0.31
+0.33
+0.36
Winrate
44%
38%
35%
30%
22%
20%
19%
16%
15%
13%
12%
SOLUSDT 60m SHORT Reversal -1
6
1R
+0.333R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.33
+0.25
+-0.00
-0.33
-0.17
+-0.00
+0.17
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Winrate
67%
50%
33%
17%
17%
17%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
194
5R
+0.330R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.20
-0.12
+0.02
+0.17
+0.24
+0.33
+0.08
+0.03
-0.03
+0.03
+0.08
Winrate
40%
35%
34%
29%
25%
22%
16%
13%
11%
10%
10%
SOLUSDT 5m LONG Reversal +1
127
2R
+0.323R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.01
+0.18
+0.32
+0.29
+0.22
+0.13
+0.16
+0.26
+0.13
+0.26
+0.13
Winrate
50%
47%
44%
32%
24%
19%
16%
16%
13%
13%
10%
SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
134
7R
+0.313R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.04
+0.03
+0.05
+0.19
+0.27
+0.21
+0.31
+0.31
+0.28
+0.27
+0.15
Winrate
48%
41%
35%
30%
25%
20%
19%
16%
14%
13%
10%
BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
102
3R
+0.294R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.08
+0.08
+0.12
+0.29
+0.23
+-0.00
+0.03
+0.02
+0.15
+0.08
-0.03
Winrate
54%
43%
37%
32%
24%
17%
15%
13%
13%
11%
9%
ETHUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
293
8R
+0.290R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.07
+0.09
+0.16
+0.17
+0.20
+0.23
+0.24
+0.23
+0.29
+0.26
+0.28
Winrate
53%
44%
39%
29%
24%
20%
18%
15%
14%
13%
12%
SOLUSDT 15m SHORT Reversal -1
43
4R
+0.279R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.12
+0.05
+0.19
+0.21
+0.28
+0.26
-0.02
+0.12
-0.37
-0.54
-0.49
Winrate
44%
42%
40%
30%
26%
21%
14%
14%
7%
5%
5%
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
112
10R
+0.277R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.00
+0.09
+0.15
+0.18
+0.25
+0.07
+-0.00
+0.00
+0.12
+0.25
+0.28
Winrate
50%
44%
38%
30%
25%
18%
14%
12%
12%
12%
12%
SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1
141
2R
+0.234R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.01
+0.14
+0.23
+0.14
+0.10
+0.19
-0.06
-0.09
-0.04
-0.01
+0.01
Winrate
50%
45%
41%
28%
22%
20%
14%
11%
11%
10%
9%
BTCUSDT 30m LONG Continuation +1
26
3R
+0.231R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.15
-0.04
-0.08
+0.23
-0.04
-0.31
-0.19
-0.39
-0.31
-0.23
-0.15
Winrate
42%
38%
31%
31%
19%
12%
12%
8%
8%
8%
8%
BTCUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1
103
5R
+0.223R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.03
+0.14
+0.11
+0.20
+0.21
+0.22
+0.02
+0.09
+0.05
+0.07
+0.07
Winrate
52%
46%
37%
30%
24%
20%
15%
14%
12%
11%
10%
BTCUSDT 3m SHORT Continuation -1
224
6R
+0.219R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.12
-0.02
+0.00
+0.02
+0.07
+0.10
+0.22
+0.21
+0.17
+0.03
+0.03
Winrate
44%
39%
34%
25%
21%
18%
17%
15%
13%
10%
9%
SOLUSDT 60m LONG Continuation +1
10
2R
+0.200R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.00
+0.00
+0.20
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
+0.00
+0.10
Winrate
50%
40%
40%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
BTCUSDT 15m LONG Reversal +1
43
1.5R
+0.163R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.07
+0.16
+0.12
+0.02
-0.19
-0.16
-0.19
-0.44
-0.58
-0.54
-0.49
Winrate
54%
46%
37%
26%
16%
14%
12%
7%
5%
5%
5%
ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
132
8R
+0.159R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.09
-0.01
+0.04
+0.12
+0.10
+0.14
+0.11
+0.15
+0.16
+0.14
+0.08
Winrate
46%
39%
35%
28%
22%
19%
16%
14%
13%
11%
10%
BTCUSDT 3m SHORT Reversal -1
268
4R
+0.157R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.10
-0.02
+0.04
+0.15
+0.16
+0.07
+0.04
-0.07
-0.13
-0.10
-0.18
Winrate
45%
39%
35%
29%
23%
18%
15%
12%
10%
9%
8%
ETHUSDT 15m SHORT Reversal -1
27
5R
+0.111R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.18
-0.17
+-0.00
+0.04
-0.07
+0.11
-0.22
-0.41
-0.33
-0.26
-0.18
Winrate
41%
33%
33%
26%
18%
18%
11%
7%
7%
7%
7%
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Reversal +1
145
3R
+0.103R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.03
+0.05
+0.03
+0.10
+0.10
-0.01
-0.03
-0.17
-0.07
+0.03
+0.06
Winrate
48%
42%
34%
28%
22%
17%
14%
10%
10%
10%
10%
BTCUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1
109
5R
+0.101R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.21
-0.15
-0.09
-0.08
+0.01
+0.10
-0.17
-0.27
-0.17
-0.27
-0.29
Winrate
39%
34%
30%
23%
20%
18%
12%
9%
9%
7%
6%
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
215
8R
+0.088R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.19
-0.12
-0.09
+0.01
+0.00
+0.03
+0.01
+0.01
+0.09
+0.07
-0.03
Winrate
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
17%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
SOLUSDT 15m LONG Reversal +1
36
2R
+0.083R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.00
-0.03
+0.08
-0.33
-0.31
-0.50
-0.42
-0.56
-0.50
-0.44
-0.39
Winrate
50%
39%
36%
17%
14%
8%
8%
6%
6%
6%
6%
ETHUSDT 60m LONG Continuation +1
14
1.5R
+0.071R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.14
+0.07
-0.14
-0.43
-0.29
-0.57
-0.50
-0.43
-0.36
-0.29
-0.21
Winrate
43%
43%
29%
14%
14%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
ETHUSDT 30m SHORT Continuation -1
21
1.5R
+0.071R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.05
+0.07
+-0.00
-0.05
-0.52
-0.43
-0.33
-0.24
-0.14
-0.52
-0.48
Winrate
52%
43%
33%
24%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
5%
5%
SOLUSDT 30m SHORT Reversal -1
15
1R
+0.067R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.07
+0.00
+-0.00
-0.47
-0.67
-0.60
-0.53
-0.47
-0.40
-0.33
-0.27
Winrate
53%
40%
33%
13%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
ETHUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1
46
1R
+0.043R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.04
+0.03
+0.04
-0.04
-0.02
-0.09
-0.39
-0.30
-0.22
-0.56
-0.52
Winrate
52%
41%
35%
24%
20%
15%
9%
9%
9%
4%
4%
SOLUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1
34
4R
+0.029R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.00
-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
+0.03
-0.29
-0.38
-0.77
-0.73
-0.71
-0.68
Winrate
50%
38%
32%
24%
21%
12%
9%
3%
3%
3%
3%
BTCUSDT 15m SHORT Continuation -1
68
1.5R
+0.029R
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
-0.06
+0.03
-0.12
-0.35
-0.71
-0.73
-0.69
-0.77
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Winrate
47%
41%
29%
16%
6%
4%
4%
3%
0%
0%
0%
⚠ Combos sans espérance positive
Combo
N
ETHUSDT 5m SHORT Continuation -1
134
BTCUSDT 30m SHORT Continuation -1
24
SOLUSDT 30m LONG Reversal +1
17
BTCUSDT 60m SHORT Reversal -1
8
BTCUSDT 30m SHORT Reversal -1
15
ETHUSDT 30m SHORT Reversal -1
15
BTCUSDT 60m SHORT Continuation -1
11
SOLUSDT 60m SHORT Continuation -1
13
▼ 🔍 Meilleurs filtres indicateurs (N≥15)
Combo
Indicateur
Tranche
Expectancy globale
Expectancy filtrée
Gain Expectancy
N
Expectancy & Winrate par niveau (filtré)
Courbe Esp
SOLUSDT 5m SHORT Reversal -1
ADX
>35
+0.31R (7R) — WR: 16%
+4.62R (9R) — WR: 56%
+4.31R
16
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.38
+0.72
+1.06
+1.75
+2.12
+2.75
+3.38
+3.50
+4.06
+4.62
+3.81
Winrate
69%
69%
69%
69%
62%
62%
62%
56%
56%
56%
44%
BTCUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
RSI
>70
+0.58R (8R) — WR: 18%
+4.50R (10R) — WR: 50%
+3.92R
24
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.83
+1.29
+1.75
+2.00
+2.75
+3.00
+3.38
+3.67
+3.87
+4.00
+4.50
Winrate
92%
92%
92%
75%
75%
67%
62%
58%
54%
50%
50%
BTCUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
ADX
>35
+0.09R (8R) — WR: 12%
+3.65R (10R) — WR: 42%
+3.56R
26
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.46
+0.83
+1.08
+1.77
+2.08
+2.23
+2.23
+2.69
+3.15
+3.23
+3.65
Winrate
73%
73%
69%
69%
62%
54%
46%
46%
46%
42%
42%
ETHUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
RSI
<30
+0.80R (10R) — WR: 16%
+4.26R (10R) — WR: 48%
+3.46R
23
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.74
+1.07
+1.35
+1.96
+2.04
+2.65
+2.35
+2.83
+3.30
+3.78
+4.26
Winrate
87%
83%
78%
74%
61%
61%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Continuation +1
RSI
>70
+0.96R (9R) — WR: 20%
+4.36R (10R) — WR: 49%
+3.40R
39
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.69
+1.12
+1.54
+2.18
+2.72
+3.31
+3.13
+3.51
+3.85
+4.13
+4.36
Winrate
85%
85%
85%
79%
74%
72%
59%
56%
54%
51%
49%
SOLUSDT 1m LONG Reversal +1
RSI
>70
+1.12R (10R) — WR: 19%
+3.95R (8R) — WR: 55%
+2.83R
40
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.80
+1.12
+1.55
+2.00
+2.12
+2.45
+3.02
+3.60
+3.95
+3.75
+3.67
Winrate
90%
85%
85%
75%
62%
57%
57%
57%
55%
48%
42%
SOLUSDT 5m LONG Continuation +1
ADX
>35
+0.41R (9R) — WR: 14%
+3.07R (10R) — WR: 37%
+2.66R
27
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.63
+0.94
+1.22
+1.81
+1.78
+2.11
+2.11
+2.26
+2.33
+2.70
+3.07
Winrate
81%
78%
74%
70%
56%
52%
44%
41%
37%
37%
37%
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Continuation -1
RSI
<30
+0.73R (9R) — WR: 17%
+3.34R (8R) — WR: 48%
+2.61R
29
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.59
+0.81
+0.97
+1.48
+1.93
+2.52
+2.86
+3.14
+3.34
+3.14
+2.79
Winrate
79%
72%
66%
62%
59%
59%
55%
52%
48%
41%
34%
BTCUSDT 1m SHORT Reversal -1
RSI
<30
+0.84R (10R) — WR: 17%
+3.17R (10R) — WR: 38%
+2.34R
29
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.59
+0.90
+1.07
+1.48
+1.41
+1.69
+2.14
+2.31
+2.41
+2.79
+3.17
Winrate
79%
76%
69%
62%
48%
45%
45%
41%
38%
38%
38%
SOLUSDT 3m LONG Continuation +1
ADX
>35
+0.28R (10R) — WR: 12%
+2.50R (10R) — WR: 32%
+2.22R
22
1R
1.5R
2R
3R
4R
5R
6R
7R
8R
9R
10R
Expectancy
+0.45
+0.82
+1.18
+1.36
+1.50
+1.45
+1.23
+1.55
+1.86
+2.18
+2.50
Winrate
73%
73%
73%
59%
50%
41%
32%
32%
32%
32%
32%
▼ 🔬 Meilleures combinaisons de 2 indicateurs (N≥15)